BP in its report ‘Impact of Electric cars on Oil demand’ has predicted that the number of electric cars will rise significantly, from 1.2 million in 2015 to around 100 million by 2035 comprising 5.5% of the global fleet.
The report also predicts that the global car fleet will double from 0.9 billion cars in 2015 to 1.8 billion by 2035 as rising incomes and improving road infrastructure boost car ownership. Within the same timeframe, the non-OECD fleet will triple – from 0.4 billion cars to 1.2 billion.
It also says that around a quarter of these electric vehicles (EVs) will be plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which run on a mix of electric power and oil, and three-quarters are pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
A key driver of the pace at which EVs penetrate the global car fleet is the extent to which fuel economy standards are tightened. But EV penetration will also depend on a number of other factors, including:
- the pace at which battery costs continue to fall;
- the size and durability of subsidies and other government policies supporting EV ownership;
- the speed at which the efficiency of conventional vehicles improves; and – crucially – on
- consumer preferences towards EVs.
However it concludes that fuel demand for use in cars will continue to rise, despite efficiency improvements and EV switching.