When the autonomous vehicle running as taxi (robotaxi) started appearing on horizon, sometime between 2015 to 2107, market research reports and industry projections said that the robotaxis can be expected to become significantly cheaper to use than traditional taxi services, with some predictions indicating a cost reduction in the range of 50-60% or even more. The timeframe for this substantial cost difference to materialize is generally anticipated to be by the end of the decade (2030).
One projection indicated that by 2030, the cost per mile for a robotaxi trip could be as low as $0.30–$0.50, making them 40-60% less expensive than current traditional ride-hailing services. Another estimate from early 2022 foresaw a drop of over 50% in the cost per mile for robotaxis between 2025 and 2030. The cost reduction will be through the elimination of human driver, which represents a significant portion of the operating cost in traditional taxi and rideshare services. While the initial costs associated with the technology, such as sensors and computing hardware, are high, these costs are expected to decrease as the technology matures and scales. Furthermore, increased utilization rates of autonomous vehicles and efficiencies gained through optimized fleet management and maintenance are also expected to contribute to lower operating costs per mile for robotaxis.
Is Waymo getting into the zone?
According to recent news, Waymo’s driverless taxi service is completing over 250,000 paid trips per week across the United States. This represents a significant increase in ridership for the autonomous vehicle company. In late February 2025, the company reported completing over 200,000 paid rides weekly in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. This number rose to over 250,000 paid weekly trips by late April 2025, with operations spanning Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Francisco, and Austin. This surge reflects a 25% increase in just two months.
According to a Waymo blog post from December 2024, the company was facilitating over 150,000 trips every week and had completed over 4 million fully autonomous rides in 2024 alone, contributing to a total of over 5 million rides overall by that time. The continued growth into 2025 demonstrates an accelerating adoption and scaling of Waymo’s driverless ride-hailing service in the cities where it is available.
Driverless vs. traditional taxi service in the US today
While the promise of autonomous vehicles includes potential cost savings in the long run due to the absence of a human driver, current data suggests that Waymo’s pricing is often comparable to, and in some cases can be more expensive than, traditional taxis and rideshare services like Uber and Lyft in the areas where it operates.
Reports and user experiences indicate that Waymo’s fares are influenced by factors similar to those affecting traditional taxi and rideshare pricing, including distance, time, and demand-based dynamic pricing. Some analyses have found Waymo rides to be more expensive for similar routes compared to human-driven alternatives, even when factoring out tips for traditional drivers. Conversely, other comparisons suggest Waymo’s pricing can be competitive, sometimes falling within a similar range as Uber and Lyft for comparable trips.
Traditional taxi fares in the US typically consist of a base fare, a per-mile charge, a per-minute waiting time charge, and potential surcharges or fees depending on the city and circumstances. These rates are often regulated by local authorities and can vary significantly from one metropolitan area to another.
With about a million rides per month, Waymo has just scratching the surface. If we try to put some numbers to get a sense of how huge this is- ‘Uber alone completed 11.27 billion trips globally in 2024, averaging approximately 30.3 million trips per day worldwide. While this is a global figure, the United States is a significant market for Uber.’
If we assume 15-20 million (a large part of this 30 million) trips a day is coming from United States, Than Waymo has still along way to go in scaling its operations in United States and globally.
Lower cost of technology and better resource(capex) utilisation will be precursor to the start of lowering of ride hailing cost. That we can have better taxi ride hailing service, evolved policy guidelines(regulatory norms) and changed public perception that robotaxi is safe & meaningful; may thereafter accelerate the process of lowering the cost. Finally, the luxury of having personalised environment and ability to carry office into the robotaxi will be cherry on top of cake.
Wild guess- maybe some time in 2028, we may start seeing lower robotaxi rates in United States.
References:
- What is a self-driving car? (McKinsey)
- Robotaxis In 2025-2030: Global Expansion And Adoption Trends (PatentPC)
- Autonomous Now: Why We Need Self-Driving Technology and How We Can Get It Faster (Manhattan Institute)
- Waymo’s robotaxi revolution: 250,000 weekly trips signal a new era for electric autonomy (evxl.co)
- Waymo’s autonomous rides in Phoenix cost around $0.40 per mile, competitive with Uber/Lyft (patentpc.com)
- Taxis of the United States (Wikipedia)
- The Decline of Traditional Taxi Companies and Its Impact on Workers’ Comp Transportation Costs (chooseavo.com)
- Uber vs. Lyft: Who’s tops in the battle of U.S. rideshare companies (seconfmeasure.com)
Author: Maneesh Prasad, Telematics Wire
